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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-09T21:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-09T21:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32663/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M4.5 flare peaking at 2024-08-09T21:23Z from AR 3774 (approx. S05W40). Eruption with rising/opening field lines and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 193, GOES 284, and STEREO A EUV 195. No clear CME arrival signatures in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-13T03:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 633
Longitude (deg): 31W
Latitude (deg): 09S
Half-angular width (deg): 43

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 57.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-08-10T17:30Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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